Will BlackRock ETF Get Approved?

As of the latest information available regarding this highly anticipated event, BlackRock has revised its proposal for a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), which is considered a significant move towards potentially securing approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This revised proposal includes an update to allow cash redemptions, a feature that could be instrumental in meeting regulatory requirements and gaining approval. Despite these efforts, it's important to note that the SEC has not yet approved any spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States, and BlackRock's application is still pending approval​​​​​​.

Since I don't involve myself in ETF products because I prefer to buy directly from a DEX, or a CEX, I had to do a little research on the difference between a cash-only redemption and an in-kind redemption, and here's what I've learned.

1. Cash Redemption:
   • Definition: Cash redemption refers to the process where an investor or a large institution (like a market maker or authorized participant) returns shares of the ETF to the fund and receives cash in return. This is the equivalent of selling the ETF shares back to the fund.
   • Process: The ETF sells some of its holdings to generate the cash to pay the investor.
   • Impact on the Market: This process can potentially have tax implications and may impact the market, especially if the ETF needs to sell large amounts of assets to meet redemption demands. Selling assets can sometimes affect the market prices of those assets, especially if they are less liquid.
2. In-Kind Redemption:
   • Definition: In-kind redemption is when shares of an ETF are exchanged not for cash, but for a basket of securities that the ETF holds. This is typically an option available to large institutional investors.
   • Process: The investor receives a collection of stocks or other assets that are equivalent in value to their ETF holdings, rather than cash. This process essentially involves transferring the underlying assets rather than selling them.
   • Impact on the Market: In-kind redemptions are generally considered more tax-efficient and less likely to disrupt the market, as they don't require the ETF to sell its holdings. This can be especially important for ETFs that hold less liquid or more volatile assets, as it avoids putting downward pressure on those assets.

In the case of a Bitcoin ETF, these differences are particularly relevant. A cash redemption mechanism would mean the ETF might need to sell Bitcoin holdings to meet redemption demands, potentially affecting Bitcoin's market price when you consider the amount of assets under management.

An in-kind redemption, on the other hand, would involve transferring Bitcoin directly to the redeeming party, avoiding the need to sell in the open market and thereby minimizing market impact.

The optimism around the potential approval of BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF continues to grow, particularly as the company has made amendments to its proposal, aiming to align more closely with regulatory expectations. However, BlackRock had to deny a recent media report that claimed its application had already been approved, indicating that the approval process is still ongoing and subject to regulatory scrutiny​​.

Regarding the timeline for approval, it was speculated that the SEC might make decisions on BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF and 11 other similar applications by January 5th. This date was seen as a key deadline window for the SEC to act on these pending applications. Nonetheless, even if the SEC approves these ETFs, there could be a delay before the products are officially launched​​.

In summary, while there is increasing optimism and BlackRock has made significant updates to its proposal, the approval of its Bitcoin ETF by the SEC is not yet confirmed. It remains a subject of ongoing regulatory review.

BlackRock Seeding The ETF

BlackRock has made significant progress in the development of its spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). Here are the key points regarding BlackRock's efforts to seed the ETF:

1. Initial Seeding Amount: BlackRock received an initial seed funding of $100,000 for its spot Bitcoin ETF. This investment was agreed upon on October 27, 2023, according to BlackRock's filing. The identity of the seed investor was not disclosed​​.
2. Significance of the Seeding: The collection of $100,000 in seed funding was a notable step forward for BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF. This action was part of the updated prospectus for the spot bitcoin ETF application and indicated progress in the development and potential launch of the ETF​​.
3. Increased Seeding Plans: In a more recent development, BlackRock outlined plans to allocate $10 million in seed funding for its spot Bitcoin ETF. This move is scheduled for January 3, 2024, demonstrating a significant financial commitment from the company towards the launch of this ETF. The increased seed funding is a substantial step up from the initial $100,000 and reflects the seriousness of BlackRock's intentions in this space​​​​​​.
4. Engagement with the SEC: BlackRock has been actively engaged with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to address concerns and requirements for the ETF. The company has reportedly had several meetings with the SEC, which suggests ongoing discussions and negotiations to ensure the ETF meets regulatory standards and expectations​​.

With all the latest developments, and the frequent meetings with the SEC, the entire crypto market fully expects this ETF to get approved sometime in 2024. It's hard to believe a hard denial would occur with all this bullish momentum.

So while nothing is set in stone, the consensus among the community is not if, but when.